Battalion of global semiconductor industry closed 2017 capture gives those who be as high as 20% the year’s harvest to grow to exceed bright look result, breaking semiconductor industry not only had been mature industry, future becomes the narrow view between vast sky, at the same time battalion accepts scale also with one action is broken through 4, 0 dollar closes greatly. This number makes a lot of research organizations and market personage drop broken glasses, because semiconductor industry comes nearly 10 years, eliminate base period of depress of financial seismic sea wave, bring about grew 2010 rate is cruel add more than 30% besides, the battalion of semiconductor industry receives year of growing rate to be in likely 10% the following, appear for a time even of 1% small a decline. Accordingly, the management of the semiconductor industry 2017 is behaved, it is to be able to be encircled really can nod.

Industry of normal of memory market regression grows healthy still

Look into 2018 with two years 2019, global semiconductor industry will still continue to grow, alone growing rate will put delay to 8% with 6% , return to normal level. Battalion receives dimensions to be able to continue refresh history record, was expected to challenge 2019 5, 0 dollar. Nevertheless, also the research organization thinks, the battalion harvest long rate of semiconductor industry will still be maintained 2018 16% high-grade, but SEMI thinks, considering memory marketThe priceFall after a rise arrives normal level, 8% should be relatively reasonable anticipation.

Memory was 2017 the loco that semiconductor industry grows, it is DRAM or NAND Flash no matter, quote all is in continuously high-grade, the battalion of the person that every DRAM follows NAND Flash industry closes to also write down the history accordingly new tall. SamSung electron (Samsung Electronics) more squeeze next Intel accordingly (Intel) , become the person that global battalion controls the semiconductor industry with the biggest dimensions.

Nevertheless, enter as sequential 2018, at present NAND FlashThe priceHad glided, because be produced newly,DRAM price arrives probably partly below 2018 at the beginning of 2019 can leave to go out and be amended downward in great quantities. The apogee that this also means this memory boom to circulate has gone.

SEMI thinks, in memory price amendatory the influence falls, will approach normal level quite with the growing range that battalion of global semiconductor industry received 2019 2018, not easy reappear exceeds the growing range of 10% . But this does not state the wedding day of memory industry has ended. Will look with NAND Flash, repair below this product value at present, basically be reportMakeCost glides, course of study of and rather than person the Jew between competes; DRAM price will appear become loose, also be to produce the inevitable result after can be being joined newly. As a result of memory line of business person to producing can investment is quite rational, because this is relevant course of study person profit space still can be defended basic dish.

Besides memory, component of photoelectricity, sensor, disperse (Discrete) and imitate component also had good performance 2017, and below the circumstance that waits for application to develop flourishingly in content couplet net, 5G, artificial intelligence and car electron, anticipate can have good performance in the near future. Graph the 1 analysis that is growing engine of trend of industry of SEMI half-and-half conductor and future is collected whole.

Pursue battalion harvest grows 1 future semiconductor engine and dimensions of main application market beforehand appraise


Installation cost achieves the history market of new tall material is behaved strong

SEMI 2017 year old end updates global brilliant round factory to forecast report content, point out brilliant is round 2017 factory installation cost is relevant repair on defray general to 57 billion dollar, write down the history new tall. Because price of driving, memory resides chip demand not to fall high, market competition is intense wait for an element to drive brilliant round factory to invest to be climbed up continuously litre, a lot of course of study person the literary work investment that place did not see before builds brilliant round factory and relevant facility. Amount of defray of equipment of round plant of brilliant of calendar year whole world (graph 2) .

Pursue semiconductor of 2 whole worlds is produced can / equipment capital expenditure goes situation


Although Intel (Intel) , beautiful light (Micro) , Toshiba (Toshiba) and Western Digital, with passing Luo Fangde (a lot of companies such as Globalfoundries) are in 2017, increased brilliant round factory to invest 2018, expenses of round plant equipment increases Dan Jing to be returned at most is Korea SamSung (force person of Samsung) and SK sea (SK Hynix) this two family property person.

SEMI data shows, because SamSung defray grows considerably,Korea whole invested amount increase sharply 2017 basically is, its grow extent is expected to achieve 128% , add from 8 billion dollar to 18 billion dollar. Expenses of equipment of brilliant round plant also increases SK about 70% , amount to 5.5 billion dollar, achieve record of this company throughout history. SamSung and SK sea although force person defray is spent likely in Korea churchyard, but the investment that still has one share is in chinese mainland and United States, also drive amount of defray of these two areas consequently grow. Amount of investment of the person that SEMI forecasts this two family property will still be resided continuously 2018 do not fall high.

2018, chinese mainland a lot of complete 2017 brilliant round plants are expected to enter equipment to hold engine level. Nevertheless, the investment of brilliant round plant of chinese mainland still comes from foreign firm mostly. 2018 the amount of defray of equipment of brilliant round plant of manufacturer of component of chinese mainland mainland will have relatively substantially grow, amount to about 4.5 billion dollar, and foreign firm predicts to will invest 6.4 billion dollar. Include Jin Hua of memory of the Yangtse River, Fujian, Hua Li, Hefei to grow a lot of person take job newly such as Xin, invest in a large-scale inside the territory in planning to be in set a plant.

As to in semiconductor material side, although be produced newly can have not leave in a large-scale piece, but because silicon brilliant is round,a few years enlarge produced the person that wait for data industry in the past the action is not positive, because this is in semiconductor boom considerably below the circumstance of get warm again after a cold spell, the state that material demands exceeds supply is very apparent. Semiconductor material is tasted various, include silicon brilliant circle, gas, chemical to wait, it is with silicon brilliant circle again among them most a large amount of. Accordingly, the expression of silicon brilliant round industry, the expressional impact of whole of half-and-half conductor material is the biggest.

The average unit price of circle of semiconductor silicon brilliant (be in since ASP) is long-term slowgoing go drop condition, the motivation with battalion chief harvest comes from the promotion that shipment measures. But be not from the circumstance 2017 such, as a result of the relation that silicon brilliant circle demands exceeds supply, attune of success of round supplier of main silicon brilliant goes up quote, also reversed the long-term trend that ASP glides, plus silicon brilliant circle shipment area breaks historical record continuously, because silicon brilliant is round this 2017 the dimensions of the market relatively grew considerably 2016 17% , also drive market of integral semiconductor material to appear the year’s harvest of 10% is long (graph 3) .

Pursue semiconductor of 3 whole worlds is produced can / equipment capital expenditure goes situation


Come to be defended not easy good value, look into in the near future, silicon brilliant round course of study person produce can outspread rate too won’t fast, so that create the chip with client negotiation as far as possible. But the client bargain capability as a result of circle of semiconductor silicon brilliant is stronger, because this silicon brilliant is round all of price tomorrow go situation still need observation.

SEMI beforehand appraise, 2018 with 2019 global semiconductor the yield of silicon brilliant circle can will meet only increase 3.6% with 3.2% . 2018 the dimensions of market of integral semiconductor material criterion beforehand appraise will grow 4% .

Semiconductor industry today bright two years good conditions

Data looks related the semiconductor equipment that masters at present from SEMI and material, 2018 with right 2019 for semiconductor industry, still can saying is auspicious year. Although war of the trade in near future beauty warms up, just meet resurgence meets with American contraband punish, make the flames of war of trade war looks be like spread arrives the possibility of industry of science and technology, but this should be independent incident only. After all, the traditional industry such as steely, produce, just be trade war stand for war.

On the other hand, after resurgence suffers embargo of American science and technology, the attention that industry of conductor of Chinese government half-and-half grows is further upward, did not come to China or go out hold a memorial ceremony for more semiconductor industry to prop up policy, try to solve be short of ” core ” problem. Nevertheless, just happened as a result of resurgence incident before long, xi Jinping of Chinese state chairman is seeing the talk that publishs when Wuhan new core, the rate that should implement policy to adjust won’t be so rapid, because this returns the semiconductor industry that breaks country of call the turn very hard at present,invest a force, because how much this increases,meet after all. But to global semiconductor industry character, the every act of prospective China, certainly will is the key that must pay close attention to continuously.

(The article is studied by SEMI Taiwan industry senior manager Ceng Ruiyu is nuncupative, yellow afterwards is wide arrange)

New electron

Semiconductor component is the core of the electronic product assembly in the car, according to automobile factory business and model different, contemporary car may need to amount to 8, 000 chip, and this number is met only as drive to gain ground and increase of the car independently, additional electronic subsystem and the integrated circuit that its use will drive for nobody the sensor that the car offers its place to need, radar and artificial intelligence.

Year of crop of car and light-duty lorry be 8, many 800, every Che Zhongan assembles product of thousands of chip, the influence of manufacturing industry of conductor of automobile industry half-and-half has begun to show. Thousands of chip that a simple fact uses in the car namely can not be out of order.

Of car semiconductor spare partsDependabilityCrucial, any is in in car travel process the chip of occurrence breakdown is brought about possibly guarantee costlily maintenance and product recall, and may damage the brand image of car manufacturer, person harm may be brought about to endanger life even below extreme circumstance.

If there is 5 in an average car, 000 chip, car manufacturer everydayProduction25 thousand cars, so even if 1/1000000 (fault rate also can bring about the chip of Ppm) to because,exceed 125 cars everyday chipQualityAppearDependabilityProblem.

Because semiconductor is car manufacturer breakdown,arrange the first issue in the graph, the car system supplier of one class asks now semiconductorQualityCan achieve billion 1/0 (the level of Ppb) , and no matter,current trend is chip amount how many, more and more suppliers begin demarcate ” the breakdown amount that allows at most ” .

The method that discovers dependability fault at present is excessive rely onTestWith ageing tests, the result is quality target cannot come true and go very far. In the meantime, AuditThe standard has challenge sex more and more, the fountainhead that drives brilliant round factory to be made in chip discovers these dependability problems, because discover a problem at this moment,take the cost that corrects measure most cheap. Want to enter the market field of this constant growth, maintain the market simply perhaps to have rate, integrated circuit manufacturer must answer this kind of change that asks to chip dependability actively.

Fortunately, to semiconductor manufacturer, the thing height with the dependability of chip and their hep place is relevant: Random blemish.

In fact, good to the designMake ChengWith the product character, inchoate chip dependability problem (explicit dependability) give priority to with random blemish. Killer blemish (influenceFine rateblemish) it is to bring about package to be in time T=0(is finalTest) unsuccessful blemish. Potential defect (the blemish that affects chip reliability) it is to bring about package to be in T>0(after ageing) malfunctioning blemish.

Discover killer blemish (Fine rate) with potential defect (dependability) the relation between is to pass the same defect type that observes influence fine is led to also affect reliability. The size of blemish and they are in this both and main basis packageStructureThe position that appears on will distinguish. Graph the 1 case that showed the killer that brings about open circuit and short circuit and potential defect.

Graph the same defect type that 1 influence fine leads also can affect reliability. Basically be in according to the size of blemish and them designStructureThe position that go up will distinguish.


The relation between fine rate and dependability blemish not bureau be confined to a few specific blemish types; Any likelihoods bring about fine to lead losing blemish type to cause dependability problem possibly also. Breakdown analysis makes clear, in fact most dependability blemish isMake ChengRelevant blemish, can trace to the source brilliant round factory. Because fine rate and dependability blemish have same prime cause, because this raises fine rate (lead relevant blemish with fine through decreasing) will raise dependability.

Graph the fine that 2 medium A curves showed a pattern leads a curve. If we consider chip fine rate only, so in a certain moment, in this the further investment in making Cheng may not have cost effectiveness, because this is led as the elapse fine of time,tend smooth. Graph the curve that 2 medium B dotted line showed the same plant that makes same product. But, if they want to offer money for automobile industry, so the cost that they also must be not worth considering dependability. Below this kind of circumstance, need further investment to reduce blemish density further, this can raise fine rate already, can promote car supplier wants reliability again.

Graph the yield curve of round factory of brilliant of 2 different types (yield is opposite at time) . A curve applies to the brilliant round factory that is not auto industry, what basically consider is the gain ability of brilliant round factory. In some hour, yield is already enough tall, continue to try bring down ratio of defects is not actual. B dotted line also is the yield curve that included dependability. To the carSupply chainThe integrated circuit product that uses in, must have additional investment, in order to ensure Gao Ke relies on a gender, closely related this and accrual.


The pattern that becomes car supplier to need brilliant round factory to run the level by transition of supplier of average level chip transforms. Manufacturer of successful automobile industry semiconductor adopts the following strategy already: Reduce potential (dependability) the optimal method of blemish is the level of overall and random blemish that reduces brilliant round plant. This means the strategy that should have a world’s top-ranking bring down drawback, include: Base lineFine leads promotion, the bring down is unusual occurence rate, appear unusual when can discover online rehabilitate quickly, and use grain chooses the grain with doubtful eliminate.

(Article author is David W. Dr. Price and Jay Rathert are the senior inspector general of KLA-Tencor company. Douglas Sutherland is the chief scientist of KLA-Tencor company. Came 15 years in the past, they cooperate with manufacturer of many 50 semiconductor IC directly, they optimize whole in the light of all sorts of specific marketsCraftControl is politic, include car dependability, cost of traditional brilliant round plant and risk are optimized, and those who be aimed at advanced design standard is optimal appear on the market method. ) new electron