[introduction] on June 17, in the 2nd China that holds dene south Guangzhou? Forum of industry of integrated circuit of Na Sha international (2023 IC NANSHA) go up, hua Runwei of domestic IDM big plant (SH688396) president Li Hong expresses in the speech, dimensions of Chinese semiconductor market is among a year of in the past, add fast weak at the whole world, present seasonal decline, but glide the trend has sign after all.

 According to American semiconductor guild (SIA) statistical data shows, global semiconductor sold amount 2022 relatively 5 2021, 55.9 billion dollar rises 3.2% . Nevertheless, after market of second half of the year glided continuously 2022, amount of sale of the four seasons falls to 1, 30.2 billion dollar, relatively the corresponding period already glided 2021 14.7% , relatively the 3rd season also glided 2022 7.7% . Additional, amount of global semiconductor sale also fell in December 2022 to 43.4 billion dollar, relatively glided in November 2022 4.4% .

Will analyse with the area, the sale amount of America market grew 2022 range is the biggest, amplitude is achieved 16% . And chinese mainland remains the semiconductor with the greatest whole world single market, amount of total 2022 sale is achieved 1, 80.3 billion dollar, relatively decreased 2021 6.3% , but occupy than still be close to 32.5% . If with the sale December 2022 amount is analysed, all areas relatively will glide somewhat November, among them chinese mainland area glides compared to the same period 5.7% .

Additional, according to statistic of world semiconductor trade (WSTS) data shows, global semiconductor market is in 2023 continue first quarter posture of be issued to lower levels, market dimensions annulus is compared drop 8.7% , annulus comparing drops achieve 2019 since first quarter record, drop compared to the same period 21.3% , drop compared to the same period it is to achieve 13 years to come more record, be next to second borrow crisis climax 2009 first quarter (drop 30.4% ) .

The data with newest SIA shows, 2023 global semiconductor sale is 119.5 billion dollar first quarter, annulus comparing drops 8.7% , dropped compared to the same period 21.3% . Will differentiate according to the market, chinese mainland area glided compared to the same period 34.1% .

Li Hong says, chinese semiconductor market glides have a lot of reasons, include global economy to glide, international situation complex, industry depreciates, demand is reduced etc. But up to this year in March, dimensions of Chinese semiconductor market glides somewhat slow down, the sign that has after all.

The data of SIA also shows, annulus compared sale of global semiconductor market this year in March appeared nearly one year to rise first. Will differentiate according to the market, semiconductor sale increased European market this year in March 2.7% , asia-Pacific area / all and other country increases 2.6% , chinese mainland also grew 1.2% .

Li Hong expresses, of semiconductor industry periodic originate of supply and demand do not match, among them the intermediate index that inventory is a special core and outside show index. The industry moves to be in the addition of inventory, follow has in reducing a process bad. Typical semiconductor stock cycle can divide for 4 phase: ① goes actively inventory (volume price falls together) ; ② passivity goes inventory (the quantity cheapens smooth / rise) ; ③ fills actively inventory () of the Qi Sheng that estimate value; ④ passivity filling inventory (the volume rises valence to make the same score / drop) . Semiconductor industry whole is entered first half of the year from 2022 adjust period, be in at present go actively inventory level, appeared stage accumulating report, SamSung when the person that the industry precedes considerably callback, other company had experienced 3 quarters even the hardship of a year of above, cereal bottom is before!

“Follow client communication from us, and in light of the actual condition of our company, we think semiconductor industry has been close to trough now, current inventory level is lower. We still have confidence second half of the year quite or at latest next year, we feel (market demand) should meet restore. ” Li Hong say.

Li Hong says, from semiconductor downstream application looks, fast growth of consumptive electron direction already no longer, demand is very fatigued and weak, especially mobile phone. But the growth that waits for demand as net of couplet of 5G, content, new energy resources, electric car, AIGC, semiconductor market will gain new growth momentum. “The trough of semiconductor industry is in basically recently this second half of the year, prospective perspective is very wide still. Prospective perspective is very wide still..

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